🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."