Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
A mere two months prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.